Bitcoin may have slipped into an accumulation zone amid increased whale deposits into the Binance exchange.
While Bitcoin has collapsed 47% from its $126,000 all-time high reached in October 2025 amid the six-month downturn, market data indicates that the crypto firstborn may have entered an accumulation zone, with Binance recording higher whale deposits.
Key Points
- Bitcoin has dropped 47% from its $126,000 all-time high and remains down 23% this year after recording five straight months of losses.
- The $BTC price is trading around $67,000, still above its realized price of $54,286, suggesting it has not yet reached the deeper undervaluation seen in past cycles.
- Data indicates that during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin stayed below its realized price for 179 days before recovering.
- Institutional demand remains weak, with key indicators turning negative.
- Exchange activity shows rising whale influence as inflows to Binance hit 2,003 $BTC ($134 million) on March 29.
Bitcoin Reacts to Global Tensions
Oinonen, a verified CryptoQuant analyst, discussed this in his latest analysis. He explained that Bitcoin has moved into an accumulation phase at a time when global uncertainty is increasing.
According to him, tensions in the Middle East, especially the Israel-Iran conflict escalation in February 2026, pushed oil prices higher and drove the CBOE Volatility Index above 31 on Monday, showing rising fear in the markets. However, these tensions pushed Bitcoin to $65,000.
No Clear Bitcoin Capitulation Yet
For context, since Feb. 28, WTI crude oil has risen by 53.7% to around $103 per barrel. In comparison, Bitcoin has only gained 3% during that period, and even that small increase came after it recently recovered from a drop to $65,000 earlier in the day. Bitcoin remains down 23% this year, recording five straight months of losses from October 2025 to February 2026.
Notably, Oinonen clarified that even though the market is deep in a bear phase, it has not yet seen a full capitulation. To him, the market still lacks the kind of sharp sell-off that usually marks the end of a downtrend.
He called this missing phase a final wave of panic selling, where trading volume rises sharply, leveraged positions face forced liquidations, and realized losses on-chain increase quickly. Without this, it is harder to say that the market has reached its lowest point.
Bitcoin Realized Price and Signs of Accumulation
Oinonen also noted that as Bitcoin’s price drops, it is getting closer to its realized price, which often signals undervaluation. Right now, the realized price stands at $54,286, while Bitcoin is trading at about $67,000 at press time, meaning it is still above that level.
The analyst compared the current phase to the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin fell below its realized price in June 2022, dropping to $21,000 while the realized price was $22,500. During that time, Bitcoin stayed below the realized price for 179 days, giving investors a long window to accumulate.
Oinonen believes a similar pattern could happen again in 2026. He said that while current models suggest Bitcoin is moving sideways, a stronger sign of a bottom would be a drop below the realized price. However, he added that Bitcoin is already in an accumulation zone, where long-term investors often begin to buy.
Weak Institutional Demand and Whale Activity on Binance
Despite this, Oinonen also called attention to weakening demand from large investors. Specifically, the Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative again, showing that institutional interest has slowed. He also referred to recent CryptoQuant data, which shows that broad institutional demand is still missing.
Meanwhile, activity from large holders on Binance has increased. These whales have been moving large amounts of Bitcoin onto the exchange, which often suggests they may be preparing to sell. This trend pushed the Exchange Whale Ratio on Binance from 0.39 on March 25 to 0.66 on March 29, before it eased slightly.
He also noted that Bitcoin flows into Binance have been positive over the past two days. On March 29, the exchange recorded 2,003 $BTC in net inflows, worth about $134 million, the highest since Feb. 20. The trend has continued, with current inflows at 1,395 $BTC so far today, valued at around $93 million.
