Bitcoin fell below $77,000 on Monday in Asia as rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured risk assets, while prediction-market traders continued to price little chance of near-term Federal Reserve relief.
The move comes as macro conditions have become less favourable for crypto. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.13%, its highest close since 2007, while Polymarket traders put the odds of no Fed move at 98% in June and 94% in July. The 10- and two-year yields also extended last week’s rise, hitting 12-month highs.
That matters for bitcoin because it suggests traders are not expecting the Fed to offset tighter financial conditions quickly. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as $BTC and tend to weigh on speculative assets when inflation concerns are driving the move.
On-chain data from Binance Research offered a more mixed backdrop. Glassnode data cited by the firm showed nearly 60% of the bitcoin supply has not moved in more than a year, while $BTC balances on exchanges are at a six-year low.
Binance Research also flagged short-term holder MVRV, or market value to realized value, a measure of whether recent bitcoin buyers are in profit or loss. The reading is currently below 1, indicating that, on average, newer buyers are underwater. That can make the market more sensitive to further declines, since investors sitting on losses have less room to absorb another macro-driven selloff.
Presto Research said traders are now watching several catalysts this week, including Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, U.S. PPI on Thursday and further progress on the CLARITY Act, the market structure bill advancing in Washington.
Nvidia (NVDA) has become a broader risk gauge because of its role at the centre of the AI trade, while PPI will give markets another read on whether inflation pressure is broadening beyond energy.
For crypto, the near-term question is whether bitcoin can stabilize while rates stay elevated. Low exchange balances and inactive older supply can limit obvious spot-selling pressure. Still, they do not prevent sharp moves when macro traders cut risk or when recent buyers fall deeper into losses.
That leaves bitcoin trading between two forces: on-chain data showing long-term holders are still largely inactive, and a rates market that is giving investors fewer reasons to add exposure before the next inflation print.
