For the first time since 2020, Bitcoin ($BTC) has experienced its longest decoupling from the S&P 500 index.
Since September 2025 until March 23, Bitcoin price has been trapped in a falling trend fueled by high deleveraging. The flagship coin has dropped more than 45% since the October 11, 2025, crypto crash and is trading at about $68,471 at press time.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has returned to the same point it was in early September last year. After an initial 8.7% spike during the fourth quarter of 2025 to reach an all-time high (ATH) of about 7,000, the S&P 500 index has fallen to obliterate the gains in the past two months.
The last time Bitcoin and the S&P 500 registered such a prolonged decoupling was between August 2019 and January 2020, as per analysis from on-chain analytics platform, CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin decouples from the S&P 500 index amid macro bear market
The rising decoupling of $BTC price and the S&P 500 index, in the past seven months, has coincided with their macro bear markets. A similar fractal pattern was registered before the 2021 rally and the post 2017/2018 bull cycle.
The declining investors’ conviction in the S&P 500 has increased its midterm bearish sentiment. With $BTC price already trapped in a falling trend in the past two quarters, the decoupling could further continue in the near future as the bearish outlook persists.
What’s next for $BTC?
Typically, Bitcoin moves in tandem with the S&P 500 index, especially during bull markets. As such, investors monitoring this correlation could be better placed to identify the onset of the next bull rally.
However, the decoupling between these two financial instruments could continue for months if the passage of the Clarity Act, a comprehensive regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry, in the United States triggers a crypto bull run, while the index remains trapped in a bear market.
