Bitcoin (BTC) climbed 3% over the past 24 hours to a monthly high of $97,822 after trading below the $95,000 level for well over a week, according to CryptoSlate data.
As of press time, the flagship crypto was trading at $97,029.
The recovery movement comes despite old whales continuing to realize profits, which has led to significant sell pressure in recent weeks, as highlighted by CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju.
Ki explained that over-the-counter trading desks register a high volume of negotiations while exchange deposits rise. These are common signs of short-term negative price variations. However, he believes these market movements are insufficient to cause a crash.
According to Ki:
“Buying pressure is mainly from U.S. institutions on Coinbase, but daily premium is at a 2-year low. Needs recovery for the next leg up.”
After registering a new all-time high above the $108,000 price threshold on Dec. 17, BTC started a retracement that stopped at $91,816.86 on Dec. 30. Since then, Bitcoin has been slowly recovering towards the $100,000 zone.
To the trader identified as Rekt Capital, this movement is expected. In late December, he pointed out that Bitcoin usually faces retraces from seven to nine weeks after it enters the price discovery zone.
Recently, he highlighted that the ninth week is slowly ending, which would allow BTC to regain its upward momentum based on previous price cycles. The trader explained:
“BTC is offering more confirmation for additional downside than reasons to be bullish for the moment. Once Bitcoin clears its historically corrective Weeks 7, 8 & 9 in Price Discovery – the opposite will be true.”
Cooling off period
CryptoQuant’s community analyst, Avocado_onchain, also believes that the current correction is a period for “cooling off,” and the crypto market is still in the midst of a bull run.
In a recent analysis, he tranquilized investors by stating that another six-month correction period is unlikely based on on-chain data.
The 7-day simple moving average (7-SMA) of the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is above 1 point but trending downward. This movement suggests decreasing profits for market participants.
The analyst added:
“Historically, when SOPR drops below 1, Bitcoin often rebounds as selling at a loss triggers reversals — common in bull market patterns.”
Moreover, the Miner Position Index (MPI), analyzed with a 7-day SMA, reveals miners are not making massive transfers to exchanges. This signals a holding pattern by large mining firms despite periodic selling movements to cover operational expenses.
Derivatives’ funding rates have also decreased, and BTC frequently rebounded from sharp drops in this indicator. The analyst explained that another rebound could occur if funding rates continue to decline, followed by bearish sentiment.
Lastly, Avocado_onchain addressed the total network fees and their 7-SMA, which indicated less activity and a potential cooling phase. Consequently, the overheating caused by the run to the recent all-time high is subsiding.
Although on-chain data suggests the macro upward movement is still occurring, the analyst suggested caution as short-term price movements are still unpredictable.
At the time of press 11:32 pm UTC on Jan. 2, 2025, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap and the price is up 2.52% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $1.92 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $46.13 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin ›
