The model became popular during the 2025 treasury boom, when companies could raise capital by issuing shares at a premium to the value of their Bitcoin holdings. But as those premiums narrowed or disappeared, issuing new shares became less attractive, limiting companies’ ability to finance additional purchases.
“Shareholders have seen premiums collapse and some companies sell into weakness. Investors are now pricing these businesses on funding costs, balance-sheet discipline and bitcoin per share,” said Kooner.
“A rally could therefore restart buying, particularly among companies with credible financing structures but a return to last year’s indiscriminate capital raising looks unlikely.”
Established Bitcoin treasuries may get first access to capital
Bitwise’s October market report also showed a decline in the number of Bitcoin treasuries in Q3, driven by smaller companies abandoning their Bitcoin treasury strategies. A dozen companies that entered during the 2025 treasury boom sold their entire holdings mostly to repay debt or return cash to shareholders after their stock premiums evaporated, said Rasmussen.
Kooner expects established players to attract capital first if buying resumes.
“Initially, capital would likely gravitate towards established players, which have the scale, the liquidity in their own securities and the track record investors now demand,” he said.
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Rasmussen said most of the largest corporate buyers outside Strategy were operating businesses adding Bitcoin from cash flow rather than issuing stock to fund purchases. That represents “a smaller source of demand but a healthier one,” he said.
Meanwhile, Kooner cautioned that a broader resurgence of new treasury-companies could emerge only after a rally is well underway.
“A broad wave of new listings would most likely arrive late in a rally, once premiums have widened and that timing is itself a warning sign.”
Bitcoin ETFs could support recovery without treasury boom
Even without another corporate Bitcoin buying boom, Rasmussen said there will be other drivers for a Bitcoin recovery, pointing to $6.4 billion in spot Bitcoin net inflow in Q3.
“Corporate purchases are one source of demand for bitcoin, but not the only source,” he said.
Kooner agreed ETF demand could sustain the recovery for a period, but cautioned that some activity reflects basis trades that can unwind quickly.
“Without corporate buying, the market loses a price-insensitive bid and becomes more dependent on allocators who rebalance with macro conditions,” he said.
Recent flows show that ETF demand can reverse. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $229 million in net outflows last week, their second consecutive week of net withdrawals, according to SoSoValue data.
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