Bitcoin price was stronger during the weekend, achieving the highest weekly close in more than two years. There was another swing to the $48,800 resistance wall on Monday morning (Asian business hours) followed by a rejection, pushing BTC price below $48,000.
Optimism Builds For A Bitcoin Price Pre-Halving Rally
Although trading at $47,800 during American business hours on Monday, Bitcoin has the potential to reverse the trend northwards eyeing areas above $50,000.
That said, traders would be looking out for a four-hour close or acceptance above the importance hurdle at $48,500, where BTC could launch an attack on $50,000 resistance and probably close above $51,000 before the end of the week.
A bullish outcome is likely as long the interest spot BTC ETFs have been getting in the last weeks continues. According to ETF data from SoSoValue, the daily total net inflow hit $541.46 million on Friday, bringing the combined cumulative net inflow to $2.77 billion. IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB were the best perming ETFs with single-day net inflows of $250 million, $188 million, and $136 million.
Grayscale’s GBTC ETF is still the worst-performing product with a single-day net outflow of $52 million followed by Invesco Galaxy’s BTCO at -$17 million.
Bitcoin ETF data
Bitcoin price faces a potential double-top pattern on the weekly chart, which could lead to an immediate trend reversal from resistance at $8,800. The last time Bitcoin unsuccessfully tested this barrier was in March 2022, a 63% drop followed.
While such a massive drop is highly unlikely based on the outlook of the market at the moment, Bitcoin price could experience a minor correction, bringing support areas $44,000 and $40,000 into the picture.
Bitcoin price chart | Tradingview
Based on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, the path of the least resistance is strong to the upside. The buy signal backed with green histograms suggests that buyers have the upper hand.
Therefore, eyeing a daily close above $48,800 could accentuate the uptrend, as confidence among traders builds for a breakout above $50,000.
Read also: 5 Heavily Discounted Crypto To Buy After Super Bowl 2024, Including XRP And LUNC
Blockchain data analytics platform IntoTheBlock reveals another important resistance slightly lower than the previous one at $48,491. More than 800k addresses purchased around 270,000 BTC in the range likely to contribute to sell pressure as investors break even on their positions.
Bitcoin has set its sights on $50k!
To get there, there is one important resistance level left. Over 800k addresses acquired nearly 270k $BTC at an average price of $48,491. These addresses are currently in the red and might provide sell pressure as they break even on their… pic.twitter.com/nEw4tP8wUc— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) February 12, 2024
On-chain data shared by analyst James Van Straten shows that investors started cashing out for short-term highs profit last week on Thursday and Friday, sending more than $4 billion.
There was a noticeable drop over the weekend, with approximately $2 billion transferred to exchanges. “This would be investors who bought in the last six months, but a lot would have come from coins bought below 40k,” Straten added via a post on X.
Investors move their holdings to exchange platforms with the intention to sell, otherwise, it is common practice to store BTC in sell-custody wallets.
Whether Bitcoin has or has not started the pre-halving rally is something market participants are waiting to see. A pre-halving rally occurs due to the hype surrounding the halving event (this time due in April).
However, this uptick in price is not expected to last forever based on historical data and insight from Rekt Capital, a popular analyst, and trader on X. He opines “We’ll get another BTC pre-halving retrace” adding “but first, the pre-halving rally has only just started.”
Of course, we’ll get another #BTC Pre Halving Retrace
But first the Pre Halving Rally which has only just started$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) February 11, 2024
The next few days are very essential to Bitcoin and its short-term outlook. A break above $50,000 could spread FOMO among investors who could create momentum to keep the structure bullish. If resistance at $48,000 refuses to budge, a correction to support areas highlighted from $46,000, $44,000 to $40,000 will come in handy, allowing BTC to sweep fresh liquify for a major breakout.
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