Prominent crypto analyst apsk32 asserts that Bitcoin is following its historical trend despite recent market concerns.
Towards the end of 2024, the sentiment in the crypto market could be summed up in two words: “up only,” as Bitcoin kicked off a blistering run on President Donald Trump’s election victory that saw it soar past the long-desired $100,000 price point.
With the turn of the new year, though, market sentiment has quickly soured. As Bitcoin bounces between the $100,000 and $90,000 price point for weeks, fears that the asset may have already peaked this cycle are taking root. Still, most analysts have begged to differ, with the latest being “apsk32.”
Same Old Bitcoin Bull Cycle?
“Bitcoin’s price action this cycle has been fairly normal,” apsk32 asserted in an X post on Wednesday, February 12.
The analyst argued that many were pessimistic because Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) approved in January 2024 had sparked an early run, and most anticipated the momentum to continue.
apsk32 premised their view firstly on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, which has seen it peak in November or December four years apart starting from 2013. This includes cycle peaks of $1,242 on November 29, 2013, $19,891 on December 17, 2017, and $69,000 on November 10, 2021.
Judging by this pattern, the analyst argued that the cycle top was likely to come in November or December 2025.
At the same the analyst referred market participants to the power law. For context, the power law model is a mathematical model that tries to predict Bitcoin’s future price based on its long-term exponential growth pattern.
The growth curve formed by the model has historically offered a last line of defense for price during bear markets, while price tends to deviate from it upward in bull cycles.
This model shows a minimum cycle peak of $190,000, a mean cycle peak of $210,000, and a maximum cycle peak of $290,000, suggesting that the asset’s price still has significant upside potential.
Bitcoin power law cycle cloud chart Source apsk32
In the short term, however, Bitcoin appears to be having another rough day. In response to hotter-than-expected inflation data for January 2024, the asset is trading 2% lower on the day below the $95,000 price point.
