Bitcoin’s price path has grabbed attention as it hits the critical mid-point of its halving cycle. Trading near $80,460 at press time, BTC shows slight daily gains despite volatility (down 4.47% weekly), but analysts are still optimistic for the coming months.
Historically, this stage (about 7 months post-halving) often marks the beginning of significant BTC bull runs. Previous cycles have witnessed strong rallies from this stage, sparking renewed expectations that Bitcoin could soon test and potentially exceed its all-time highs.
PlanB’s S2F Model Still Targeting $500k+ Bitcoin: How Does It Work?
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model creator PlanB says Bitcoin remains on track for a dramatic surge by late 2025, targeting over $500k based on scarcity metrics and time-based analysis. His charts use red dots for halving periods, blue for intervals between them (as shown in his tweet below).
7 months to go in the [6 months before – 18 months after the halving]-period: 7 more🔴 pic.twitter.com/J4QRIy796c
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 10, 2025
Based on S2F positioning, Bitcoin might soon challenge historical resistance ($60k-$100k). The model shows strong long-term support ($10k-$30k) buffering against corrections.
Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Dead? Analysts Point to Market Maturity
Beyond technicals, market sentiment is shifting. A recent Bitcoin Archive poll found almost half of the respondents doubt the traditional 4-year cycle still applies.
Analyst Chris Burniske agrees, arguing the crypto market is maturing beyond these fixed patterns. He believes blockchains are evolving to core digital infrastructure, which will reshape investor behavior and expectations.
Higher Lows Ahead? How ETFs & Tech Could Dampen Bitcoin Crashes
With BTC/ETH ETFs live (Solana maybe next), institutional demand could support higher price floors. Burniske suggests extreme 85-95% drawdowns are now less likely for top assets.
Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA (at approximately $40k) continues to act as a reliable long-term support. It sets cycle bottoms around a 60% drawdown—much less severe than past crashes (a point Burniske elaborated in his tweet).
Continue to believe there are high odds we break the simplistic four-year cycle that $BTC has honored the last ~12 years. If that happens, most people will realize they over-traded what’s to come, with too short-term a view. But to buy that thesis, you have to believe blockchains… pic.twitter.com/JZzAbRcEyu
— Chris Burniske (@cburniske) January 15, 2025
“Goldilocks” Era or Deployment Phase? What’s Next for Bitcoin Growth?
Moreover, favorable regulatory conditions in the U.S. could usher in a “Goldilocks” era for digital assets.
Analysts predict steadier growth over the coming years, with less volatility but more sustainable returns. Referencing Carlota Perez’s framework, some believe crypto is moving from its volatile “Installation” phase to a “Deployment” phase of broader adoption.
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