Bitcoin nears a ‘thinly traded pocket’ — Is $64K next for BTC?

Sentiment simply does not support a recovery — at least, not yet.

Market conditions show cooling and short-term sensitivity

The STH-to-LTH supply ratio was above the upper band and had risen compared with last week. This meant short-term holders accounted for a larger share of the Bitcoin supply.

In turn, this pointed to a market more sensitive to short-term price movements: coins held by short-term holders tend to have slim profits and are often moved first under stress.

Glassnode’s Market Pulse report also showed that the percentage of supply in profit had fallen. The share of profitable supply was shrinking, but had not crossed below the lower band.

Therefore, the market was still in a cooling phase, not capitulation. Moreover, fewer holders were sitting on profits that might tempt them to sell, which should ease profit-taking pressure.

$BTC in a “thinly traded pocket,” warns analyst

The Coinbase Premium was negative even when the rally began in August. Its -0.135% reading now meant Bitcoin was cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance. The discount had been wider toward the end of October, as selling pressure increased.

This is considered a sign that interest in $BTC among U.S.-based investors was low.

The net taker buy-sell imbalance in the futures market was -13,142 $BTC on the 9th of November, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported. The futures imbalance had been -75,000 on the 5th of November and has contracted since then.

Even so, the overall market regime has shifted away from the bullish signals seen just a few short weeks ago. Bitcoin was above the 200-day Moving Average at $73,193, but only slightly.

The imminent threat was the $64k–$74k pocket. In August, $BTC prices had surged through this area, leaving it thinly traded. It could offer little resistance on the way down, too.

Final Summary

• The net taker buy-sell imbalance had contracted, and the percent supply in profit signaled the market was in a cooling phase, not capitulation.
• The thin pocket from $64k-$74k was a threat to the bulls. It had offered no resistance during the August squeeze, and might behave similarly on the way down.

Source: ambcrypto.com. Adapted by NBTC.