Bitcoin ($BTC) is down roughly 40% from its October 2025 record high, but a long-term valuation model suggests the cryptocurrency could erase the entire decline and rally to as high as $255,000 by year-end.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin Decay Channel puts $BTC’s conservative year-end range at $90,000–$255,000, with its 2027 range extending to $128,000–$308,000.
- Bearish HODL Waves suggest a possible higher bottom in the $65,900–$70,500 range.
Bitcoin model puts $BTC‘s year-end target in the $90,000–$255,000 range
The Bitcoin Decay Channel is a logarithmic price model that tracks $BTC’s long-term uptrend while adjusting for smaller gains in each new cycle.
The cryptocurrency’s major tops in 2013, 2017 and 2021 formed near the model’s upper valuation bands, while bear-market lows repeatedly moved back toward its lower support zone.
$BTC/USD price performance to date. Source: Sminston/TradingView
Bitcoin’s latest rebound also began near the lower end of the Decay Channel in March-April, showing that buyers stepped in around a zone the model has historically treated as long-term support, or bottom.
That keeps the bullish case alive, according to analyst Sminston.
“Bitcoin Decay Channel gives a pretty reasonable range—conservative case—of $90k–$255k, by the end of this year. $128k – $308k for end of ’27,” he said in a Wednesday post, adding:
“For comparison, Bitcoin was $43k in December 2023.”
Sminston’s $90,000–$255,000 Bitcoin target range fits multiple predictions calling for $BTC to reach a new all-time high in 2026.
Earlier, Bernstein analysts maintained a $150,000 Bitcoin target for 2026, while pushing their $200,000 peak forecast into 2027, citing a longer institutional adoption cycle led by $BTC ETFs and public companies.
Related: Bitcoin price history suggests 77% odds of new all-time high within a year
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expected Bitcoin to reclaim $126,000 this year, citing US war spending in Iran, AI infrastructure demand and the resulting pressure for more fiat liquidity.
Bear flag and other indicators hint at persistent $BTC sell-off risks
Bitcoin continues facing selloff warnings from a slew of bearish indicators, including a multi-month bear flag.
A bear flag typically resolves when the price drops by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. $BTC risks plunging under $56,000, down about 30% from current prices, if the classic breakdown setup plays out as intended.
$BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Onchain data suggests Bitcoin may not need to fall as far as the bear-flag target.
The Bitcoin HODL Waves indicator, which tracks how long $BTC remains unmoved in wallets, suggests a possible bottom in the $65,900–$70,500 range if the weakness continues.
Bitcoin HODL wave indicator. Source: CryptoQuant
In a Tuesday post, CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom said a stronger long-term holder base may help $BTC form a higher, slower bottom this cycle, with $70,500 as the key level to hold.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
