Bitcoin (BTC), the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has entered an unusually quiet phase, with the least volatile six-day stretch since November 2023.
According to Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, this level of low volatility was last seen in November 2023, before Bitcoin rose 35% in a month. A Bitcoin six-day volatility chart provided, accompanying the tweet, indicates a considerable decline in volatility as the BTC price consolidates.
Quietist Six Days for Bitcoin Since the Brief November 2023 Trading Range After Which BTC Rallied 35% in One Month pic.twitter.com/amMsxIlpo3
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) February 11, 2025
BTC’s price has been rangebound for the past week, trading below the daily SMA 50 at $98,749. Since Feb. 5, Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range of $94,730 to $100,235. The range has tightened in recent days as bulls press against the daily SMA 50 to breach it.
Historically, such periods of low volatility have preceded major breakouts, leading traders and analysts to speculate on the potential for a major move ahead.
If history repeats itself, BTC could be gearing up for a major price shift. The market will be watching closely for any signs of increased buying activity or catalysts that could spark the next big move.
Bitcoin price action
Bitcoin fell below the 50-day simple moving average of $98,749 on Feb. 2 and neared the bottom of the $109,588 to $90,000 range on Feb. 3.
As things stand, bulls are attempting to drive BTC prices back above the daily SMA 50. If they succeed, Bitcoin may depart from its present range and aim for $100,000.
According to Glassnode cofounders known as “Negentropic” on X, Bitcoin may have hit a bottom before a push to $100,000 due to a regime shift, which shows early signs of a trend change. Choppy price action could continue, according to the Glassnode cofounders, even with a retest of $95,000, but as long as this zone holds as support, BTC could solidify its move into the bullish quadrant.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 1.43% in the last 24 hours as investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which would provide new insights into the state of the U.S. economy and potential monetary policy decisions.
