In brief
- Bitcoin is hovering near $66,000 after Trump reportedly signaled his willingness to end the Iran campaign even with the Strait of Hormuz closed.
- The CME’s FedWatch tool puts a 97.4% chance on the Fed keeping rates unchanged on April 29, as oil is up 48% since the start of the conflict.
- A rapid de-escalation could unlock a “strong risk-on rally” above $90,000, Decrypt was told.
Bitcoin is holding around $66,000, as U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly pivoted towards prioritizing an exit from the Iran war.
According to administration officials cited by The Wall Street Journal, Trump is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Per the WSJ, Trump has decided the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and missile stocks, winding down hostilities while applying diplomatic pressure on Tehran to resume free trade. If that fails, Washington would press European and Gulf allies to take the lead on reopening the chokepoint.
At a White House press briefing Monday, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that ensuring safe passage for oil tankers through the strait is not one of the “core objectives” of the campaign.
In a Truth Social post Monday, Trump reiterated threats to target Iran’s energy infrastructure “and possibly all desalinization plants” if the strait is not “Open for Business” following “serious discussions” with the Iranian regime.
Trump’s pivot reflects his broader strategic approach rather than a change of intent, Erik Amirbai Lang, co-founder of movement-driven cryptocurrency project N4T, told Decrypt.
From the outset, his actions signaled pressure and deterrence rather than commitment to a prolonged conflict, given his reluctance to accept U.S. casualties and preference for deal-making over military escalation, Lang argued. Economic costs, risks to global markets, and lack of domestic backing constrained deeper involvement, with initial actions aimed at demonstrating strength to reduce the need for further escalation, he added.
The S&P 500 and the broader financial markets noted immediate gains following this development, but have since slid lower. Bitcoin remains fairly steady, closely hugging $66,000, the lower limit of its near-two-month consolidation phase.
It is currently priced at around $66,600, down 1.6% over the past 24 hours, and roughly 7% over the past week, according to data from price aggregator CoinGecko. On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, users remain pessimistic on Bitcoin’s prospects, putting a 61% chance on its next move taking it to $55,000 rather than $84,000.
Despite the potential easing around the geopolitical front, oil is up 48% since the war began, raising high inflation concerns. Markets have assigned a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the rates unchanged at the next meeting on April 29, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool.
If a rapid de-escalation of the Middle East conflict comes to fruition, it “could unlock a strong risk-on rally,” Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Decrypt. In such a case, Bitcoin could move above $90,000, with Ethereum following, retesting the $2,700 to $2,800 range, she said.
Even with an end to the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin is unlikely to embark on a bull run without “sustained institutional flows and regulatory clarity,” Zhang added.
Interestingly, Myriad users remain cautious on the geopolitical picture, assigning just a 3% chance of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran before April.
