Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says that Bitcoin (BTC) is signaling bullishness for the stock market for one key reason.
In a new interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Lee says that Bitcoin has soared back to levels not seen since before President Trump announced tariffs on April 2nd, suggesting stocks may soon print a massive recovery as well.
“Yes, I think new highs are possible this year [for the S&P 500]. One reason is that companies have proven themselves to manage through shocks, and I don’t think investors give them enough credit. That happened with COVID. Companies survived. Companies survived a bullwhip effect on the economy. They survived a surge in inflation. They survived the Fed hiking at the fastest rate ever. So I think this tariff shock, while it is shocking, I think earnings will probably outperform expectations. That would be one thing.
And then I think the things that were leading us down, whether it’s Tesla or the Mag 7 or Bitcoin, they’ve begun to recover. In fact, Bitcoin is above its April 2nd level. So Bitcoin, I think, is telling us the S&P should recover towards a 5,800 level in the near term. And that’s still upside from here.”
Bitcoin is trading for $93,828 at time of writing, down 1.8% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is at 5,673 at time of writing.
Lee also says that the US’s inflation data suggests the Fed could start cutting rates sooner rather than later, which would increase market liquidity.
“The Fed has been on hold, and they’re saying they’re waiting for tariffs. But what’s interesting is the ECB (European Central Bank) has been cutting rates even though there’s tariffs inflation hitting Europe, or soon to hit Europe. The reason is European Central Bank inflation measure, the HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices), excludes shelter.
If the Fed excluded shelter from its core inflation calculation, it’s lower than Europe now, and yet Fed funds are over 225 basis points tighter than Europe. So I can actually sympathize with the argument the Fed should be cutting now, even if we don’t know the effects of the tariffs.”
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