The Derivatives Flip
“What’s happened in the derivatives market for Bitcoin leaves me much more bullish,” Sigel told Anthony Pompliano on Wednesday.
“If you look at what you have to pay for puts versus calls, it’s like we’re in the 99th percentile here of folks paying up for protection. That’s a contrarian long signal,” he added.
Additionally, coins that are 3-5 years old that haven’t moved in that timeframe started selling heavily in Q4 and Q1 as early cycle buyers took profits.
That selling has eased up in recent weeks, with Marathon Digital Holdings ) retiring convertible bonds representing one exception.
“We’re still bullish, but we haven’t added maybe as much as you might expect given that kind of respect the cycle, respect the four-year cycle,” Sigel said.
The NODE Strategy
Sigel manages NODE, an ETF focused on beating Bitcoin with lower volatility.
Since inception, NODE gained 27% while Bitcoin fell 33%, with lower volatility through diversification and a focus on profitable sectors.
“I just don’t see the need to add leverage to what is already a very volatile asset,” Sigel said.
The fund focuses heavily on Bitcoin miners transitioning to AI infrastructure.
The AI Productivity Case
VanEck consolidated its AI budget around Anthropic and is building agents to automate back office work.
Sigel credits his internal productivity gains to integrating Claude into Excel, allowing the firm to avoid new hires.
Dollars per megawatt for leases signed by Bitcoin miners converting to AI data centers keeps rising, while rental costs for Nvidia chips on the spot market also climb.
Miner stocks are down 40% from peaks, creating opportunity.
The 2026 Risks
Sigel worries about Mag 7 stocks failing to earn returns on enormous AI capex.
Companies going through massive investment cycles face tough stock performance because investors only learn the return on capital later.
The concentration of these companies in the S&P 500 ) means failure to earn returns would create a real market headwind.
Political pressure may prevent aggressive headcount reductions that could improve margins.
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