Bitcoin fell back toward $65,000 on Friday as investors cut exposure to risk assets after another round of Middle East tensions kept oil prices elevated, pushed Treasury yields to their highest levels in months, and lifted the dollar.
According to CryptoSlate’s data, $BTC dumped nearly 5% to around $66,484, its lowest price since the beginning of the month. This continues a trend in which the top crypto repeatedly fails to hold when macro pressure returns.
An analyst at Bitunix told CryptoSlate:
“$BTC has fully transitioned into a reflector of liquidity structure. Price action remains confined within a broad $65,000–$72,000 range, with volume distribution showing clear supply overhead above $70,000, while the $65,000 region continues to accumulate passive demand.”
Data from CoinGlass showed that the price action wiped nearly $200 million from crypto traders within the past hour, with long traders bearing most of the losses.
In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump revealed that he was postponing plans to destroy Iran’s energy plants by another 10 days, extending the deadline to April 6 as talks continued. This represented the second significant pause he had introduced amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.
The new announcement rattled global markets, with Brent crude rising toward $110 a barrel, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.456%, its highest since July, and the Nasdaq remaining in correction territory after falling 11% from its recent high.
At the same time, the dollar was also heading for its strongest month since July 2025 as investors sought safety and markets priced in tighter financial conditions.
Against this backdrop, market analysts stated that Bitcoin’s decline showed that the flagship digital asset was still trading more like a high-beta risk asset than a hedge against geopolitical stress.
When oil surges, investors do not just see a war story. They also see the threat of higher inflation, fewer rate cuts, and a tougher backdrop for richly valued assets. In that setup, Bitcoin can fall with technology stocks rather than rise with gold or other defensive trades.
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Oil and yields reset the macro backdrop
The most useful way to frame the current market move is to look at what happened in oil and rates after Trump’s announcement. The pause on attacks changed the immediate war timetable, but it did not convince markets that the inflation threat had eased enough to lift pressure on risk assets.
Data from Oilprices.org show that the oil benchmarks were still sharply higher from the start of the conflict, with Brent up 52% and US crude up 43% since the war began.
Those gains have been large enough to keep inflation fears alive even during moments when diplomacy appears to make progress.
That is the key transmission channel for Bitcoin. Higher oil prices do not only signal geopolitical danger. They also express concerns that inflation will remain elevated, forcing central banks to keep policy tighter for longer.
For context, Reuters’ March 26 poll found most economists still expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady until at least September, but financial markets have moved much further, shifting from expectations of cuts to debate over whether another hike is possible later this year.
On Friday, Reuters reported markets were pricing in a 70% chance the Fed will raise rates in 2026. For Bitcoin, that is a hostile combination: expensive energy, higher real-world borrowing costs, and a market increasingly focused on inflation persistence rather than on fresh liquidity.
The dollar’s strong performance this month has added to that strain.
Data from TradingView shows that the dollar index was heading for a 2.4% monthly gain, its best performance since July, as investors sought haven assets and repriced the US rate outlook. A stronger dollar often tightens global financial conditions on its own and makes speculative trades less attractive.
Bitcoin, which had already lost some momentum in recent weeks, was exposed to that shift as soon as the broader market began cutting risk.
ETF support has turned less reliable
Meanwhile, $BTC‘s move towards $65,000 also showed that the post-ETF market still needs steady institutional inflows to absorb selling pressure.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF complex did not lose all of its demand this month, but the flow pattern turned uneven just as macro conditions worsened.
Data from SoSoValue shows that the funds, after registering strong inflows of around $2 billion during the early part of this month, have seen a significant slowdown.
For context, the US-listed investment vehicles have registered net outflows of over $70 million in this trading week compared to the week ending March 13, when the funds saw inflows of $767.33 million.
Those figures describe a market where institutional demand is no longer arriving in a straight line.
This is because strong ETF inflows can cushion crypto when macro headlines deteriorate, but patchy inflows leave Bitcoin more exposed to the same swings in yields, equities, and the dollar that are hitting the rest of the risk complex.
A large options expiry sharpened the move
Friday’s selloff also landed alongside one of the year’s largest derivatives events.
Data from Greeks.live show that about $13 billion in Bitcoin options were set to expire, with a put-call ratio of 0.56 and a maximum strike price of $74,000.
According to the firm:
“Despite market volatility, trading activity for Bitcoin remains relatively low. Key options data shows Bitcoin’s main-term implied volatility (IV) at 51% and Ethereum’s at 70%. As risk premium (RV) continues to decline, the volatility risk premium (VRP) has been rising; during the first half of this week, the 15-day VRP reached nearly 20%. Bitcoin performed poorly in both price and trading activity during the first quarter of this year, and market confidence remains low.”
A Bitcoin options contract gives its holder the choice to buy BT at a set price before or on a specified future date, without forcing them to go through with the purchase.
In practice, that means the buyer can walk away when the contract expires if the trade no longer makes sense, or exercise the option if it does.
As expiration approaches, the crypto market can see sharper price swings because traders often adjust positions, roll contracts forward, or close trades altogether.
So, big options expiries, like today’s, have often coincided with heavy market sell-offs, though that outcome is far from automatic.
What the break says now
The move back towards $65,000 says less about a collapse in belief in Bitcoin than about the market environment around it. Bitcoin is still being pulled by inflation expectations, central bank assumptions, oil volatility and the strength of the dollar.
When those variables move against risk assets simultaneously, $BTC does not receive special treatment. It gets sold with the rest.
For now, that leaves Bitcoin trading inside a narrow but important framework. Analysts at Bitunix told CryptoSlate:
“In the near term, if war dynamics remain “delayed but unresolved” and rate expectations continue tightening, $BTC is more likely to sustain high-frequency range-bound volatility, sweeping liquidity between $65,000 and $72,000 to facilitate position redistribution. A true directional breakout will require alignment across key macro variables, rather than being triggered by any single event.”
