“Make Sure to Sell”
Schiff laid out his argument on X on Monday as markets moved in different directions, writing:
“In case Bitcoiners haven’t noticed, the stock market is up big today, including tech and precious metals mining stocks, plus gold and silver. Yet Bitcoin is down again, trading below key support at $75K. There’s a short window before the crash. Make sure to sell before it closes.”
He pressed the point again in a reply later that day. “It’s undeniable that Bitcoin is going much lower. Sell it now before it does,” Schiff said.
The Divergence Schiff Is Pointing to
Schiff's view is that bitcoin is failing a test other assets are passing. Since the midterm elections, U.S. stocks are essentially flat, while bitcoin has fallen more than 4%. Over the same stretch, gold has climbed more than 5%, silver nearly 7%, and gold mining stocks more than 18%. As a result, he wrote:
This is a sign of things to come. Invest accordingly.
Monday's trading matched that pattern. Gold rose about 1.7% to settle at $4,141.14 an ounce, while bitcoin fell to $73,477 as more than $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated. It later struggled below $75,000 and was trading near $74,600 at the time of writing.
Schiff Has Been Calling This Level for Weeks
Schiff has been focused on the $75,000 level for more than a month. On Oct. 24, with bitcoin just below $80,000, he said “the next stop is likely $75K” and warned that exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders faced “a very long weekend” because they could not sell until Monday. A week later, after gold's own sharp drop, he described the metal's selloff as “an unexpected gift” for investors to buy more.
Bitcoin reached his target this week, and its next move will show whether his crash call holds up as well. Selling pressure is also coming from miners, with MARA disclosing on Monday that it sold 13,597 BTC after the third quarter to repay $750 million in loans.
Several Signals Support Schiff's Caution
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in outflows last week, the largest weekly outflow in about four months. Bitcoin also closed below its 50-week moving average, ending a seven-week run of closes above it that had held even after Binance's $6.3 billion hack.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen, who had argued all year that falling equities would drag bitcoin lower in the fourth quarter, said he sees more pain ahead for crypto.
Still, the bulls are not giving up. Analyst Sean Hagan called the current level “an excellent buying opportunity” for long-term believers.
Positioning in the derivatives market also cuts against Schiff's call. About $1.3 billion in short positions could be liquidated if bitcoin climbed back to $79,000, compared with about $400 million in long exposure at risk down to $72,000.
Finally, Ark Invest's Cathie Wood took the opposite side of Schiff's stance late yesterday, saying “gold is going down” and arguing that bitcoin will keep gaining on it.
Source: news.bitcoin.com. Adapted by NBTC.
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