Bitcoin is up in the past 24 hours, but recent analysis suggests it might be part of a broader bearish picture targeting steeper declines.
Bitcoin ($BTC) reached an intraday high near $69,300 on Wednesday, a good start to the month of April. However, according to an analysis from market watcher TARA, it could precede a 15% drop to sub-$60,000.
Key Points
- Today’s Bitcoin recovery to near $69,300 retested the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone.
- According to the analysis, the crypto leader would retest this level again, particularly because it did not fully capture the liquidity there.
- The RSI remains under oversold territory, a position that allows for a short upward move.
- Once Bitcoin absorbs the remaining liquidity around $69,300, a stronger move lower could follow, dragging it towards $58,000.
Bitcoin Reaches Fibonacci Level
TARA highlighted that today’s recovery to near $69,300 retested the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone. While Bitcoin has pulled back considerably from here, dropping to $68,200, the move was still notable.
According to her, the crypto leader would retest this level again, particularly because it did not fully grab the liquidity there. For context, it topped at $69,273, about $30 short of this Fibonacci target.
As such, price action in this area suggests that some liquidity may still remain. Given how closely $BTC approached the target, the analyst does not rule out another brief move toward the same zone.
Additionally, momentum indicators support this possibility, with the RSI indicating a potential second attempt at resistance. The RSI remains under oversold territory, a position that allows for a short upward move, adding weight to the idea that Bitcoin could reclaim $69,300 before shifting direction.
Broader Structure Points to Continued Downside
However, while this movement may appear constructive in the short term, TARA suggested that it fits within a broader corrective structure. She claimed that the attempt at higher prices appears to be part of a larger wave pattern still unfolding.
Once Bitcoin absorbs the remaining liquidity around $69,300, the analysis suggests a stronger move lower could follow. Notably, this was part of a broader wave 3 pattern on the shared 4-hour chart.
The projected downturn points toward the $58,000 region as the next major area of interest. Bitcoin would have to fall 15% from here to reach this low. Notably, this represents a steeper decline than the February 6 low of around $60,000, potentially taking the asset to lows last seen in October 2024.
Interestingly, this is not the first time market analysts have predicted that Bitcoin will drop to $58,000. Wall Street giant Citigroup shares this view, naming it as a bear target for $BTC on a weaker macroeconomic backdrop. This area also sits close to the Realized Price at $54,000.
