Bitcoin is facing renewed liquidity pressure as growing losses among recent buyers threaten to stall its recovery.
Stablecoin supply has shrunk by $14.2 billion in the past month, marking its steepest drop since June 2022. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's apparent demand has declined by 284,000 $BTC, nearing levels last recorded during the market turmoil of March 2025.
The worsening conditions leave Bitcoin exposed to a further fall toward $70,000. If a recovery fails to draw in fresh capital, investors who bought at higher prices could add to selling pressure.
Bitcoin's shrinking liquidity pool deepens the demand slump
The fall in stablecoin supply represents a sharp turn from the conditions that fueled Bitcoin's earlier rally.
Glassnode's report dated Nov. 11 says the total supply of dollar-pegged tokens fell by $14.2 billion in 30 days, the fastest contraction since the 2022 market crisis.
30-day change in supply of major USD stablecoins, with unresolvable points omitted. Historical readings are approximate monthly and selected event-date samples digitized from the Glassnode chart, rounded to $0.5B.
Apr. 1, 2020 – Nov. 9, 2026
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| Date | 30-day supply growth | 30-day supply contraction |
|---|---|---|
| Apr. 1, 2020 | USD 2,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| May. 1, 2020 | USD 3,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jun. 1, 2020 | USD 1,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jul. 1, 2020 | USD 1,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Aug. 1, 2020 | USD 2,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Sep. 1, 2020 | USD 4,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Oct. 1, 2020 | USD 4,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Nov. 1, 2020 | USD 2,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Dec. 1, 2020 | USD 3,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jan. 1, 2021 | USD 6,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Feb. 1, 2021 | USD 9,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Mar. 1, 2021 | USD 15,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Apr. 1, 2021 | USD 12,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| May. 1, 2021 | USD 22,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| May. 15, 2021 | USD 23,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jun. 1, 2021 | USD 20,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jul. 1, 2021 | USD 6,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Aug. 1, 2021 | USD 4,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Sep. 1, 2021 | USD 8,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Oct. 1, 2021 | USD 9,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Nov. 1, 2021 | USD 10,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Dec. 1, 2021 | USD 19,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jan. 1, 2022 | USD 11,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Feb. 1, 2022 | USD 13,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Mar. 1, 2022 | USD 9,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Apr. 1, 2022 | USD 3,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| May. 1, 2022 | Not reported | USD -1,500,000,000 |
| May. 15, 2022 | Not reported | USD -9,000,000,000 |
| May. 25, 2022 | Not reported | USD -27,500,000,000 |
| Jun. 1, 2022 | Not reported | USD -28,500,000,000 |
| Jun. 7, 2022 | Not reported | USD -27,000,000,000 |
| Jun. 15, 2022 | Not reported | USD -24,000,000,000 |
| Jun. 22, 2022 | Not reported | USD -23,000,000,000 |
| Jul. 1, 2022 | Not reported | USD -5,500,000,000 |
| Aug. 1, 2022 | Not reported | USD -1,500,000,000 |
| Sep. 1, 2022 | USD 1,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Oct. 1, 2022 | Not reported | USD -3,500,000,000 |
| Nov. 1, 2022 | Not reported | USD -3,000,000,000 |
| Dec. 1, 2022 | Not reported | USD -5,500,000,000 |
| Jan. 1, 2023 | Not reported | USD -4,000,000,000 |
| Feb. 1, 2023 | Not reported | USD -500,000,000 |
| Mar. 1, 2023 | Not reported | USD -2,500,000,000 |
| Apr. 1, 2023 | Not reported | USD -3,500,000,000 |
| May. 1, 2023 | Not reported | USD -1,500,000,000 |
| Jun. 1, 2023 | Not reported | USD -2,000,000,000 |
| Jul. 1, 2023 | Not reported | USD -2,000,000,000 |
| Aug. 1, 2023 | Not reported | USD -3,000,000,000 |
| Sep. 1, 2023 | Not reported | USD -1,500,000,000 |
| Oct. 1, 2023 | Not reported | USD -1,000,000,000 |
| Nov. 1, 2023 | USD 2,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Dec. 1, 2023 | USD 6,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jan. 1, 2024 | USD 3,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Feb. 1, 2024 | USD 5,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Mar. 1, 2024 | USD 8,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Apr. 1, 2024 | USD 10,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| May. 1, 2024 | USD 9,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jun. 1, 2024 | USD 1,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jul. 1, 2024 | USD 500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Aug. 1, 2024 | USD 3,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Sep. 1, 2024 | USD 6,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Oct. 1, 2024 | USD 3,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Nov. 1, 2024 | USD 7,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Dec. 1, 2024 | USD 22,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Dec. 15, 2024 | USD 21,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jan. 1, 2025 | USD 9,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Feb. 1, 2025 | USD 19,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Feb. 15, 2025 | USD 18,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Mar. 1, 2025 | USD 8,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Apr. 1, 2025 | USD 6,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| May. 1, 2025 | USD 8,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jun. 1, 2025 | USD 6,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jul. 1, 2025 | USD 5,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Aug. 1, 2025 | USD 14,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Aug. 15, 2025 | USD 18,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Sep. 1, 2025 | USD 20,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Oct. 1, 2025 | USD 15,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Nov. 1, 2025 | USD 8,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Dec. 1, 2025 | USD 4,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jan. 1, 2026 | USD 1,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Feb. 1, 2026 | Not reported | USD -4,500,000,000 |
| Mar. 1, 2026 | USD 6,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Apr. 1, 2026 | USD 5,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| May. 1, 2026 | USD 3,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Jun. 1, 2026 | Not reported | USD -6,000,000,000 |
| Jul. 1, 2026 | Not reported | USD -8,000,000,000 |
| Aug. 1, 2026 | Not reported | USD -5,000,000,000 |
| Sep. 1, 2026 | USD 4,000,000,000 | Not reported |
| Oct. 1, 2026 | USD 2,500,000,000 | Not reported |
| Oct. 15, 2026 | Not reported | USD -2,500,000,000 |
| Oct. 22, 2026 | Not reported | USD -6,500,000,000 |
| Oct. 29, 2026 | Not reported | USD -12,500,000,000 |
| Nov. 1, 2026 | Not reported | USD -13,500,000,000 |
| Nov. 4, 2026 | Not reported | USD -14,000,000,000 |
| Nov. 9, 2026 | Not reported | USD -14,200,000,000 |
This supports earlier research from CryptoQuant, which found that Tether's $USDT lost $6.6 billion in market capitalization over 60 days—more than twice the $3.2 billion decline after FTX collapsed in December 2022.
The shift stands out against the liquidity growth of the preceding two years. $USDT's 60-day supply growth reached a peak of $20.6 billion in December 2024, and generally ranged from $10 billion to $16 billion for much of 2025.
The shrinking supply has coincided with a steep drop in Bitcoin's apparent demand.
CryptoQuant's apparent demand indicator dropped to negative 284,000 $BTC over 30 days, its lowest reading since March 28, 2025. The indicator estimates the gap between newly issued and newly active supply and the quantity absorbed by the market.
Similar readings—negative 309,000 $BTC in March 2025 and negative 273,000 $BTC in June 2026—came during earlier market declines that were followed by recoveries.
Bitcoin later rebounded from its June lows while the Coinbase Premium Index stayed mostly negative, indicating that the index alone did not fully capture the strength of the recovery.
The current decline, however, has coincided with sustained institutional selling and a wider pullback in dollar liquidity.
CryptoQuant reported that the Coinbase Premium Index was negative for 30 days in a row, averaging about minus 0.14%. Separately, Glassnode's adjusted measure recorded its deepest 30-day discount since February.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also seen net outflows of $1.6 billion over 20 trading sessions.
As a result, Bitcoin is increasingly reliant on buyers prepared to absorb supply, without the extra backing that had come from growing stablecoin issuance and ETF inflows.
Recent Bitcoin buyers face the risk of steeper losses toward $70,000
The liquidity squeeze comes as investors who entered the market during the August and September rally increasingly hold Bitcoin at a loss.
CryptoQuant data indicates that the unrealized profit margin for coins held for one to three months plunged from 33% on Sept. 22 to negative 6%. This 39% turnaround leaves these investors with an average purchase price near $79,500, compared with a Bitcoin market price of about $74,600 when the research was compiled.
In previous corrections during the current cycle, this profitability measure often approached negative 12% before leveling off. Deeper declines took it to negative 18% from July to September 2024, negative 19% in April 2025, and negative 23% in July 2026.
Using the latest acquisition price of $79,500, a negative 12% margin would put Bitcoin at around $70,000, about 6% below CryptoQuant's reference price.
Glassnode's data on short-term holders more broadly shows that just 35% of Bitcoin held by investors who bought their coins in the past 155 days is still profitable, versus nearly all of that supply at September's peak.
The group's combined cost basis is near $75,600. Large amounts of Bitcoin bought between August and October were acquired at prices reaching $83,600.
If prices recover toward those purchase levels, some investors may choose to sell at breakeven, adding pressure in a market that is already having difficulty attracting fresh capital.
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