Bitcoin (BTC) rose to as high as $94,700, buoyed by optimism about a potential easing of US-China tariff tensions and a significant influx of institutional capital.
However, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode warns that the market has not yet fully moved into bullish territory.
In a recent report, Glassnode noted that US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record $1.54 billion net inflow on April 22, indicating a wave of institutional demand. This surge helped BTC briefly reclaim its Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Floor of $92,900, a critical threshold that typically separates bearish and bullish market phases.
During the rally, approximately 5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply changed hands, with the Percentage of Supply in Profit increasing from 82.7% to 87.3%. Despite this, Glassnode noted that some short-term holders were taking profits, as evidenced by the increase in realized gains and the STH P/L Ratio reaching 1.0, a level typically associated with high exit risk.
Futures market dynamics are also mixed. Open interest increased by 15.6%, while funding rates turned negative, suggesting that short positions are increasing despite the broader price rally. This adds another layer of complexity to the market outlook, suggesting the possibility of a developing short squeeze, according to the report.
“While Bitcoin’s move above the STH cost floor is encouraging, it has yet to be confirmed as sustainable support,” Glassnode said, adding: “The market is at a key decision point.”
The analysis also noted that the performance gap between Bitcoin and Ethereum has widened, attributing this to sharp differences in ETF inflows. Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows exceeding 10% of BTC’s spot volume in two waves over the past two weeks, while Ethereum ETFs have recorded less than 1% of ETH’s spot volume.
“The disparity in ETF flows is indicative of a divergence in institutional appetite,” Glassnode said, suggesting that this could explain Ethereum’s recent underperformance compared to Bitcoin.
As Bitcoin tests critical levels, analysts and investors will be closely watching whether the bulls can maintain the momentum above $92,900.
*This is not investment advice.
