The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin ($BTC), posted a rise in its March chart after a five-month decline, ending a series of consecutive losses.
According to the data, Bitcoin rose by approximately 2% in March, recording its first monthly gain since September of last year.
However, Bitcoin experienced its worst first-quarter performance since 2018, falling 24% in the first quarter of 2026. In addition to this decline, Bitcoin also saw a 23% drop in the fourth quarter of 2025. All of this means that $BTC has lost approximately 41.6% of its value in the last six months.
Furthermore, this quarterly decline was the largest drop since the first quarter of 2018, when Bitcoin fell by 50%.
What is Bringing Bitcoin Down?
Analysts point to multiple reasons for the decline in Bitcoin. These include escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and macroeconomic uncertainty, as well as the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike and large outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Speaking to The Block, Bitrue research analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima said that Bitcoin’s decline in the first quarter was primarily due to spot ETF outflows, high inflation risk, a cautious Fed, and a general risk-aversion trend in the markets.
Although Bitcoin has fallen by nearly 50% in recent months, the long-term bullish outlook still remains.
Presto Research analyst Min Jung stated, “There is no evidence of a structural shift in long-term belief in Bitcoin. Institutional engagement and adoption trends remain strong, meaning this decline is cyclical rather than fundamental.”
At this point, Jung stated that for the downward trend in Bitcoin to reverse in the second quarter of 2026, more clarity is needed in the macroeconomic environment, particularly regarding the situation in the Middle East.
LVRG Research Director Nick Ruck also stated that an uptrend is not impossible, saying, “To change Bitcoin’s trajectory in the second quarter, we need a resumption of ETF inflows, clear progress in crypto-friendly US regulations, and looser Fed monetary policy conditions.”
*This is not investment advice.
