Bitcoin adoption and ongoing regulatory developments in the crypto space will play key roles in how markets for the world’s largest digital currency fare as October unfolds, according to multiple analysts.
The cryptocurrency has been fluctuating between $110,000 and $120,000 since late September, according to Coinbase data from TradingView.
Regulatory reform affecting the crypto space has been a big concern of the current regime, where republicans control The White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives. Working together, U.S. lawmakers managed to enact the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, also known as the GENIUS Act, which provides comprehensive stablecoin regulation.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken multiple steps to make the regulatory environment less restrictive, including providing generic requirements for exchange-traded products (ETPs) that will make it easier for financial institutions to list such securities.
Some analysts have predicted that this development will result in a deluge of applications for crypto-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
In July, SEC released a statement related to tokenized securities inviting those interested in holding sales of such financial instruments to meet with the government regulator and its staff. Many interpreted this as a signal that the government agency wants to work with crypto industry participants.
While this may all sound promising, these developments may have encountered a snag in the form of the recently imposed U.S. government shutdown.
On Tuesday, September 30, Russell Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, sent a memorandum stating that federal government “employees should report to work for their next regularly scheduled tour of duty to undertake orderly shutdown activities.”
The YouTuber who goes by Wendy O emphasized the impact this situation could have on the crypto industry, stating via email that “Usually, I wouldn’t be too concerned with the shutdown, but we are waiting for various regulatory updates from the Senate, SEC, CFTC, and other entities.”
“I wouldn’t equate market volatility with Bitcoin and crypto, as they are decentralized and operate globally 24/7/365,” she continued.
“Still, regulation is essential during this time as Q4 2025 is expected to be big in crypto due to the pending regulatory outcomes of Crypto Spot ETF approval, Clarity Act, Banks pushing back on stablecoin yield and the SEC discussing tokenized stocks and financial instruments,” the analyst noted.
Other market observers chose to focus on other developments such as user adoption.
Mike Maloney, CEO and Founder of Incyt, commented on such subjects, focusing on the influx of capital that crypto ETFs, as well as companies placing digital assets on their balance sheets, will create.
“With ETFs and DATs expanding to lesser known crypto assets, a lot of new capital will accumulate behind these,” he stated via email.
“With Bitcoin as a proven reserve asset, I expect to see its price remain strong – poised to pop – when investors move from risk to relief,” Maloney indicated.
Tim Enneking, managing partner of Psalion, also weighed in.
“With ETF listing rules easing markedly in the US (resulting in ever more attention to the space), more and more countries, companies and other players moving into BTC, once the upward movement starts, it seems quite clear that a new ATH is in the cards before the end of 2025,” he specified through emailed comments.
Brett Sifling, wealth manager for Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, also offered his perspective on such developments. He stated that going forward, a handful of “catalysts” will drive bitcoin’s price movements.
“First would be to keep an eye on ETF momentum and approvals,” he stated. “We’re already seeing new SEC rules making it easier for new crypto funds/ETFs, and that flood of potential new filings is going to test whether institutional flows can sustain a continued bull run.”
“Second would be the macro and liquidity backdrop,” Sifling continued. “A pivot into more hawkish Fed policy or a liquidity squeeze in markets could drag Bitcoin down, even if fundamentals look strong.”
He also spoke to the government shutdown, stating that “I could see this being a positive for Bitcoin if the government can’t come up with a resolution to reopen soon after. After all, Bitcoin was originally created in the depths of the financial crisis and was meant to thrive during political instability.”
“Lastly, I would say to continue to watch real adoption with companies and sovereign wealth funds,” he continued. “That means banks offering direct crypto services, major firms or countries putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet, and further integration of crypto into payment rails of our economy or treasury operations.”
