I think the weekly Bitcoin close will lay the groundwork for what Q4 will look like.
If Bitcoin accepts above the May high, that will improve the bull case substantially.
Acceptance back below would just look like a massive fakeout before typical Q4 weakness (but not… pic.twitter.com/xMSMjCUpQ1
— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) September 25, 2026
Benjamin Cowen Identifies Bitcoin’s Critical Q4 Level
Cowen’s framework now centers on whether Bitcoin can hold above its May peak on a weekly closing basis. A successful close would strengthen the case that the recent breakout represents a meaningful change in structure rather than a temporary move above resistance.
Bitcoin’s latest advance also differs from Cowen’s earlier 2026 expectations. In July, his research still placed significant attention on a potential Q4 bottom after $BTC had fallen below its 200-week moving average and later recovered above it. His August research likewise maintained that a midterm correction remained possible.
That makes the $83,000 region increasingly important for traders watching the transition into the final quarter. If Bitcoin remains above the level, buyers would have additional technical evidence that the market is absorbing previous resistance rather than rejecting it.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Close Could Change The Cycle Debate
Cowen has emphasized that reacting to confirmed price action can be more useful than attempting to forecast every short-term move. Under that approach, a weekly rejection below the May high would increase the possibility of another seasonal correction, while a sustained breakout would weaken the bearish interpretation of the current cycle.
Bitcoin has already reached an eight-month high near $87,000 in September, despite several macroeconomic pressures, including elevated Treasury yields and restrictive Federal Reserve policy.
For crypto investors, the distinction matters because a confirmed breakout could force analysts to reassess historical cycle assumptions. Cowen’s earlier work argued that the four-year pattern remained relevant, but the latest price action is putting that framework under greater pressure.
