
Fed Hike Bets Crack as September Hold Odds Storm Into Lead
Across some of the market’s closely watched gauges, the hold trade currently has the edge. Polymarket puts the probability of no change at 63%, Kalshi prices it at 65%, and CME’s Fedwatch monitor shows a much tighter 55.6% chance that the Fed keeps its target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Prediction Markets Put the Hold Trade in Front Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in September?” market has pulled in more than $20.3 million in total trading volume. No change on Polymarket trades at 63 cents, translating into roughly a 63% implied probability, while a quarter-point increase sits at 36%. A quarter-point cut…








