Bitcoin’s strong rally from April’s $75,000 low might be at the risk of a halt as the $92,000–$98,000 resistance band stands strong. Popular market analyst Capo of Crypto warned in a recent post that the current levels may represent a local top and possible “LTF distribution.”
“Above $92k–93k → Bullish, but strong resistance at $96k–98k. Below $92k → Bearish,” Capo noted, highlighting the high-risk, high-reward zone Bitcoin has entered. His chart further projects a potential “real capitulation event” if BTC is rejected from this resistance and fails to hold key support near $92,000.
On-Chain Metrics: Long-Term Holders Near Peak Profit
According to Glassnode, long-term holders (LTHs)—those holding BTC for more than 155 days—are approaching a critical profitability threshold.
The latest report shows that the average unrealized profit for these holders will hit approximately 350% if BTC reaches $99,900. This level is historically linked to large-scale distribution events where holders sell.
Notably, LTH supply has increased by 254,000 BTC over the last two months. Despite their reputation for diamond hands, LTHs have shown a clear tendency to take profits near macro tops, as seen during rallies in 2021 and 2023.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction May 2025: Can BTC Break Above $96K or Face Resistance?
Market Data: Taker Buy Ratio Spikes
The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance recently spiked to 1.142, the highest level in its current range. This indicates that market participants are aggressively buying at market price, not waiting for dips; a clear sign of bullish FOMO.
Further, a sharp $200 million BTC outflow from exchanges (as per the Whales Screener) coincided with Bitcoin breaking through $96,000.
This withdrawal, typically interpreted as whales moving coins into cold storage, reflects confidence and reduces immediate sell pressure on exchanges.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
As per the chart below, the Bollinger Bands (BB) show BTC pushing the upper band near $100,000, a signal of overbought conditions but also strong upward momentum. Meanwhile, mid-BB support rests near $90,000, which aligns with Capo’s short-term bearish invalidation zone. If price retraces to this area, the reaction will be critical.
Source: TradingView
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Also, the RSI (14-day) sits at 69.66, teetering on overbought. Historically, Bitcoin can push well above 70 in parabolic rallies, but it also suggests a pullback could follow if bulls lose momentum.
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