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Polymarket gives 73% odds the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs today.
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If ruled illegal, the Treasury may owe importers up to $600B in refunds with no clear plan to pay it back.
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Two hours after the ruling, three Fed Presidents speak amid an ongoing DOJ investigation into Powell.
The Supreme Court is set to rule on Trump’s tariffs today, and Polymarket traders are giving a 73% chance the Court strikes them down. Most people think that’s good news. It might not be.
Macro analyst NoLimit, who says he’s called the last three market tops and bottoms publicly, warned that the real risk isn’t the ruling. It’s what happens right after.
“If the court nukes the tariffs, they’re instantly blowing a massive revenue hole in the Treasury,” he wrote. “The market isn’t pricing in the chaos of refund fights, emergency debt issuance, and sudden retaliation risk.”
The Refund Problem No One’s Pricing In
The US is currently pulling in around $350 billion a year from tariffs. That’s up from just $50-80 billion between 2016 and 2020. If the Court rules these tariffs illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), importers could be owed refunds.
DeFi analyst Hanzo broke it down: “Trump collected over $600B in tariffs. If they’re ruled illegal, that money has to be REFUNDED… Include investment damages from companies that restructured supply chains, delayed projects, lost contracts? That number hits TRILLIONS potentially.”
Why Crypto Gets Hit Too
Both analysts landed on the same point. If this plays out badly, crypto won’t be spared.
“When that reality hits, liquidity will be pulled from everywhere AT ONCE. Bonds, stocks, crypto. They will all be used as exit liquidity,” NoLimit said.
The timing makes it worse. Three Fed Presidents speak at 12:00 PM ET, just two hours after the ruling. This follows Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealing a DOJ criminal investigation against him. Three former Fed chairs, Yellen, Bernanke, and Greenspan, publicly slammed the probe as an attack on central bank independence.
What Happens Next
The ruling drops at 10:00 AM ET. Fed speakers follow at noon. Traders betting on a clean “tariffs removed” bounce could get caught off guard if the Treasury suddenly has to figure out how to pay back hundreds of billions with no plan in place.
