Cryptocurrency-focused economist Timothy Peterson has made a remarkable assessment of Bitcoin’s potential price action in a high-interest environment. Peterson analyzed Bitcoin’s past performance after High Yield interest rates in the US rose above 8%.
According to Peterson, similar interest rate levels have been observed 38 times since 2010. In the three-month periods following these periods, Bitcoin increased by 71%. The median gain in these periods was calculated as 31%, while the biggest loss was limited to 16%.
According to the economist, these data indicate that Bitcoin could trade in the range of $75,000 to $138,000 in the next 90 days.
Peterson also stated that the correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar has reached unprecedented levels in history. Emphasizing that this relationship is not causal, but reflects macroeconomic conditions affecting both assets, Peterson stated that this correlation has changed direction as of 2024. Bitcoin and High Yield interest rates, which previously moved in opposite directions, are now responding to the same economic stress factors: tightening liquidity, high real interest rates, and global risk aversion.
At the end of his assessment, Peterson predicted that Bitcoin would break out of this correlation and rise again as real interest rates fall and liquidity returns to the markets.
*This is not investment advice.
