Ethereum is currently trading above $2,100 at the start of the new month, but one analyst believes the asset’s next major directional move is based on a single price level: one that, if broken, would invalidate years of macro analysis and cause a price collapse to as low as $900.
The Count That Has Held For A Year
According to an analyst known as The Penguin, Ethereum’s current price behavior fits into a broader Elliott Wave structure that has been developing for years. The analysis defines Ethereum’s entire price history since 2016 as a developing macro sequence: a completed Cycle Wave 1 that topped out, followed by an extended Wave 2 correction playing out as a flat. According to the analyst, this structure is time-consuming, choppy, and designed to frustrate.
Since Ethereum’s 2021 peak, the Ethereum price has largely moved sideways and downward while repeatedly teasing recoveries that faded. The most notable example of this recovery was in August 2025, when Ethereum moved to new all-time highs. However, this has eventually ended up with a reversal that saw Ethereum fall back below $2,000 again.
The chart labels the flat trading sequence in detail, mapping out W, X, A, and B legs that form the larger Wave 2 structure. The current price action is positioned within the final leg of the B structure, and the next outlook is an upward move to C from here.
The $1,382 Line That Changes Everything
As shown in the chart above, the Ethereum price has spent the period since its 2021 peak trading beneath a well-defined horizontal resistance zone between $4,500 and $4,900, with multiple rallies failing to break through this ceiling. The lows, on the other hand, have been less uniform, with lows forming in a more irregular pattern instead of a clean horizontal base.
However, one level stands out in this structure, which is the $1,382 low recorded in April 2025. Based on the context of this analysis, this point is labelled as Wave X and serves as the lower timeframe invalidation level. This is the important price level that will determine whether the price structure continues to fall below the four-digit mark.
As long as Ethereum remains above it, the Wave 2 scenario will be valid, and the Ethereum price can still transition into a new impulsive cycle to the upside. The price target in this case is a push to as high as $8,400.
A breakdown below $1,382, however, would invalidate the entire wave count. $ETH would need to shed about a third of its value to reach that level, but given Q1 2026’s 29% decline and February 6 low at $1,743, it is not out of reach under persistent selling pressure.
If that invalidation level fails, the analyst’s projection points to a downside break below $900, with Fibonacci extensions on the chart pointing to lows between $800 and $500.
