A notable Bitcoin analyst believes the BTC bull run is yet to begin despite recent gains, expecting a further 742% gain this cycle.
Despite the ongoing market turbulence, Bitcoin (BTC) has come a long way from its price position exactly a year ago. The premier crypto asset, which changed hands around $49,000 this time last year, currently trades for $95,031, reflecting an impressive 94% gain within this timeframe.
Interestingly, Bitcoin had earlier witnessed a much higher price point, when it soared to a new all-time high of nearly $110,000 in January 2025. With the recent pullback and extensive consolidation, several market participants question if the ongoing bull run has come to an end.
Bitcoin Bull Run Yet to Begin?
However, in an interesting twist to the narrative, AO, a notable Bitcoin analyst, believes the bull run has not even begun. The market commentator said this in his latest analysis of Bitcoin’s price movements, calling attention to Bitcoin’s entire history to present the bigger picture.
For context, the bigger picture indicates that BTC has still not recorded as much uptrend as previous bull runs despite the recent gains. AO’s chart highlights four bull runs that Bitcoin had undergone since 2010, each of which resulted in explosive gains and a new all-time high.
Though BTC has claimed a new all-time high in this cycle, the latest gains do not match the ones observed from the previous four bull runs. “BTC is ready for a huge bull run,” the market analyst remarked, indicating within the chart that the asset is just about to begin the real uptrend.
One metric AO leveraged to prove his point was the Stochastic RSI indicator, singling out the %D line, which represents the moving average of the %K line, against some custom settings. Data from this indicator shows that the %D line has still not reached the levels it touched when Bitcoin was in a bull run.
For context, in each of the four previous bull runs, the %D line, under these custom settings, soared from the single-value region to levels close to 100. Currently, the line reads 6.62, suggesting that the market might not have entered regions typical of a bull run.
AO Sets $800,000 Target
However, AO expects the indicator to start moving toward these levels soon alongside Bitcoin’s price. In the chart, he sets a cycle top target of $800,000 for Bitcoin, which would represent a further 742% increase from the current price of $95,031.
Nonetheless, this suggestion challenges the idea presented by several analysts. For instance, last October, market veteran Peter Brandt suggested that the Bitcoin top for this cycle could come in at $135,000. Meanwhile, just last week, Michaël van de Poppe predicted a possible run to $500,000.
However, data from AO’s chart confirms the trend of diminishing returns that has plagued Bitcoin over the past four bull runs. As a result, the asset has continued to see lower returns with each cycle. Notably, in the previous cycle, BTC saw a 758% increase from the cycle low to its top. The asset has already gained over 600% from the current cycle’s low.
Meanwhile, an $800K price would mark a 5,061% rise from this cycle’s low of around $15,000. While Galaxy Digital Founder Mike Novogratz sees Bitcoin going to $800,000, he does not expect this to occur in the current cycle, but in five to ten years.
