While Bitcoin broke a record by exceeding $100,000 for the first time in its history last week, the upward trend paused when the price fell below $100,000 again.
Although the market continues to expect BTC to reach higher levels by rising above $100,000, one analyst said that data shows that BTC is unlikely to continue to reach new highs until January.
Speaking to Decrypt, Sean Dawson, head of research at DeFi derivatives protocol Derive, said that the probability of BTC reaching $150,000 by January 2025 is low and that the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $150,000 is 6%.
Stating that the derivatives market has a small chance for Bitcoin’s upward momentum to increase further, the analyst stated that Ethereum also has a 10.5% probability of reaching $6,000.
“We see a 10.5% probability of Ethereum reaching $6,000 by January 31, while Bitcoin has a 6% probability of exceeding $150,000.
These rates are based on derivatives market data.
Because the 25 delta curve has remained stable since last week and has not shown any significant changes. Accordingly, the market consolidated its position over the weekend.
This also suggests that investors’ expectations regarding the price direction have not changed significantly.
The 25 delta curve measures the market’s bias between calls and puts, and its stability indicates that investors’ price direction or risk expectations have not changed significantly.”
*This is not investment advice.
