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Ray Dalio warns global markets are sleepwalking into a once-in-a-generation collapse driven by debt, division, and power shifts far deeper than tariff headlines suggest.
Markets Obsess Over Tariffs—But Dalio Says the Real Collapse Runs Far Deeper
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio cautioned Monday on social media platform X that the public’s fixation on tariff headlines misses the true scale of global upheaval. Dalio opened his remarks with a sharp reminder: “Don’t Make the Mistake of Thinking That What’s Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.” While acknowledging the market impact of trade actions, he emphasized that the underlying forces creating these conditions are far more consequential:
The biggest disruptions that are likely still ahead.
Dalio made clear that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are not the root cause but rather symptoms of broader systemic issues already unfolding.
At the center of Dalio’s message was an urgent call to recognize a transformative shift in the world’s foundational structures. He argued that the current moment reflects a rare historical phenomenon: “The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders.” He continued:
This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place.
He tied this to excessive debt loads, widening domestic inequalities, and the unraveling of U.S.-led international cooperation. Dalio identified the erosion of middle-class jobs in the U.S., China’s rising influence, and growing distrust between global powers as evidence that the existing order is no longer tenable.
In addition to economic fragility, Dalio warned of a fraying domestic political system and the breakdown of democratic norms. He pointed to “huge gaps in people’s education levels, opportunity levels, productivity levels, income and wealth levels, and values” as driving polarization and empowering extreme factions. On the global front, he explained how the U.S. has shifted from a multilateral leadership model to a more unilateral, power-centric approach. Dalio urged observers not to get distracted by surface-level events, but instead to examine how these five major forces—debt, politics, international power, nature, and technology—interact and push the world toward a new era.
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