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Cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal has outlined two critical scenarios for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in its latest report. The firm predicts that Bitcoin could either surge past $161,000 or drop below $76,000, depending on whether it breaks through a key resistance level at $114,000.
Alphractal’s analysis focuses on the Fibonacci-Adjusted Market Average Price, a metric that tracks potential tops and bottoms for Bitcoin. This metric is derived from the Market Average Price, which calculates the average price of the blockchain without taking into account mined Bitcoins.
According to Alphractal, if Bitcoin manages to break above $114,000, it could trigger a bullish rally with targets above $161,000. In an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin’s price could even approach $190,000, depending on investor sentiment and market conditions.
However, failure to break above $114,000 could lead to a sharp decline, with Bitcoin potentially falling below $76,000.
Alphractal noted that Bitcoin has recently been testing resistance levels seen at key moments in its history, including late 2019, late 2021, and March 2024. Despite strong momentum earlier, Bitcoin struggled to sustain its rally in early 2025 due to selling pressure from long-term holders and high leverage on exchanges.
The Market Average Price currently stands at $61,500, which Alphractal describes as the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin, similar to market conditions during the May 2021 mining crackdown in China.
*This is not investment advice.
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