Today, approximately $8.05 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expire, prompting crypto market participants to brace for volatility.
Traders and investors should be particularly attentive to today’s options expiry due to its volume and notional value, increasing the odds of potential influence on short-term trends. However, the put-to-call ratios and maximum pain points provide insight into what can be expected and the possible market directions.
Insights on Today’s Expiring Bitcoin and Ethereum Options
The notional value of today’s expiring Bitcoin options is $7.24 billion. According to Deribit’s data, these 77,642 expiring Bitcoin options have a put-to-call ratio 0.73. This ratio suggests a prevalence of purchase options (calls) over sales options (puts).
The data also reveals that the maximum pain point for these expiring options is $86,000. In crypto options trading, the maximum pain point is the price at which the asset will cause the greatest number of holders’ financial losses.
Expiring Bitcoin Options. Source: Deribit
In addition to Bitcoin options, 458,926 Ethereum options contracts are set to expire today. These expiring options have a notional value of $808.3 million, a put-to-call ratio of 0.74, and a maximum pain point of $1,900.
The number of today’s expiring Ethereum options was significantly higher than last week. BeInCrypto reported that last week’s expired ETH options were 177,130 contracts, with a notional value of $279.789 million.
Expiring Ethereum Options. Source: Deribit
As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading well above its maximum pain level of $86,000 at $93,471. Meanwhile, Ethereum was trading below its strike price of $1,900 at $1,764.
“BTC trades above max pain, ETH below. Positioning into expiry is anything but aligned,” Deribit analysts remarked.
With the max pain level (also called strike price) often acting as a magnet for price due to smart money actions, both Bitcoin and Ethereum could pull towards their respective levels.
The positioning of both BTC and ETH open interest indicates high trader activity near max pain. The dense clustering of their respective histograms around $80,000 to $90,000 for Bitcoin and around $1,800 to $2,000 for Ethereum shows this.
This positioning suggests potential for short-term price consolidation or volatility.
Polymarket: Only 16% Chance Bitcoin Price Hits $100,000 in April
According to Deribit, traders are selling cash-secured put options on Bitcoin. Further, they are using stablecoins to collect premiums while positioning to buy BTC at lower prices. This reflects a long-term bullish outlook.
“BTC traders on Deribit are expressing long-term bullish sentiment, selling cash-secured puts using stablecoins to potentially buy the dip and collect yield,” Deribit wrote.
Analysts on Deribit also note the highest open interest for BTC options around the $100,000 strike price. This indicates strong market expectations of Bitcoin reaching this level.
Nevertheless, data on the Polymarket prediction platform shows traders estimating only a 16% chance of BTC hitting $100,000 in April.
Bitcoin price prediction. Source: Polymarket
Another interesting observation is that the Cumulative delta (CD) across BTC and related ETF (exchange-traded fund) options on Deribit reached $9 billion. While this shows high sensitivity to Bitcoin price changes, it also suggests potential volatility as market makers hedge their positions.
This aligns with remarks from crypto analyst Kyle Chassé that hedge funds never bet on Bitcoin’s long-term price appreciation. Instead, they farm a risk-free yield using arbitrage. Once the trade dies, they pull liquidity, intensifying Bitcoin’s sell-off.
Notwithstanding, Deribit analysts also reveal a surge in Bitcoin call option buying for April to June 2025 expiries. Investors are reportedly targeting strikes between $90,000 and $110,000, a sentiment inspired by Bitcoin’s price breaking above 89,000.
This suggests that bullish market sentiment was likely driven by FOMO as the BTC price extended beyond $90,000. Analysts also highlight a market stabilization effect from Trump’s tariff policy reversal on April 9. The move reduced global market volatility, potentially encouraging a rotation of investments from gold to crypto, contributing to the Bitcoin price recovery.
Nevertheless, not all activity leading up to Bitcoin’s recovery was new money or a fresh capital influx. According to an analysis by Deribit’s Tony Stewart, half of it involved rolling up existing positions, indicating strategic adjustments by traders.
