It’s been less than 72 hours since the ceasefire, and its durability already looks questionable.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, U.S. President Donald Trump recently said Iran isn’t fully sticking to the ceasefire terms.
In this kind of volatile backdrop, it’s still a stretch to call this a sustained bull market just because sentiment has flipped risk-on.
Ethereum [$ETH] is reflecting this uncertainty in real time. After a 6.28% rally on the 7th of April, $ETH has since retraced around 2.2%.
While the pullback may look modest on the surface, it still suggests that the follow-through bid is weakening at higher levels. Instead, positioning data continues to show signs of distribution.
According to Lookonchain, an $ETH swing trader recently exited his remaining 1,000 $ETH position, locking in a $1.44 million loss.
In fact, since the 27th of January, 2025, the trader has completed four swing trades (three of which were losses), bringing his total drawdown to roughly $2.45 million.
Now add to that the recent $8.3 million worth of $ETH reportedly sold by the Ethereum Foundation, and the bearish narrative starts to build a bit more.
In this context, Ethereum’s 63% jump in positive Funding Rates (from the prior 0.0024 level) starts to look like a relatively stretched positioning move.
The logic is simple: macro volatility, technical weakness, and signs of distribution all lean against rising long exposure.
In setups like this, price usually doesn’t stay balanced for long. Instead, it either triggers a long squeeze if support fails or snaps back quickly if buyers step in and absorb the supply.
The key question is whether Ethereum bulls can step in here and flip this into a bear trap instead.
Ethereum perp long bias builds as staked supply starts to roll over
Leverage in volatile conditions is rarely just speculation. Instead, it tends to be driven more by conviction.
Ethereum’s perp market is starting to show that kind of shift. Despite an uncertain macro backdrop, derivatives signals are improving.
Notably, Ethereum’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance has moved back above 1, with a monthly average around 1.016, and has held in positive territory for several consecutive days.
For context, a reading above 1 means taker buy volume is higher than taker sell volume, showing sustained aggressive buying in perps, with positioning leaning toward leveraged longs.
Combined with Grayscale staking 83,200 $ETH, this starts to look less random and more like a structural flow shift.
However, zooming out, the picture changes. Despite the staking inflow, Ethereum’s total staked supply has seen its sharpest drop in nearly a month, with 570,000 $ETH exiting staking, bringing the staking ratio down to 31.4% from a recent all-time high of 31.9%.
In essence, the market is showing a clear divergence.
For context, falling staking levels suggest reduced long-term conviction, along with potential profit-taking or risk de-risking from validators. Combined with recent capitulation, it points to supply coming back into the market without a strong bid stepping in to absorb it.
Against that backdrop, leveraged long positioning looks more like a speculative play.
With Ethereum’s current setup leaning neutral to weak, the recent pullback appears less like a bear trap and more like a distribution-led move, with pressure now shifting back toward the $2k support level.
Final Summary
- Weak macro stability and mixed on-chain signals are creating a conflicting setup.
- Leveraged long buildup against softening demand conditions increases the risk of a move toward $2k support.
