Bitcoin tried but failed at $65,000 on several occasions in the past week, and there are now multiple and different signals suggesting that another leg down is on the cards.
From war escalation to ETF withdrawals, let’s dive in.
Macro Factors
Let’s start with the Wednesday developments on US soil when the central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged. At first glance, this doesn’t sound too bearish, right? After all, the alternative was to hike them, and there was a real possibility.
However, history shows that essentially all recent FOMC meetings, no matter what the outcome was, have been followed by a $BTC price correction. Popular analysts have caught this rather negative pattern, which materialized with a $3,000 price decline over the past few days.
On the plus side, we can argue that the Friday correction to a 2-week low of $62,400 has priced in that almost mandatory post-FOMC retracement.
But there’s another macro factor that tends to harm risk-on assets like bitcoin: the war in the Middle East. Tension escalated over the past 24 hours, which included Iran reportedly striking tankers under US escort in the Strait of Hormuz.
Subsequent reports from the WSJ claimed that Trump has ordered a fresh attack on Iran to get it to surrender. According to CBS News, the US plans to attack Iranian energy assets, and this substantial escalation is expected to begin over the weekend.
Internal Reasons
The first in this section comes from the ETF behavior. The financial vehicles had a solid three-week run in which they attracted over $200 million in net inflows. However, the tides turned once again last week, with $61.53 million in net outflows. Friday was the day that changed the course, as investors pulled out over $265 million to reverse the $233 million in net inflows on Thursday.
Lastly, let’s explore a technical tool. Ali Martinez warned that the TD Sequential, a metric used to determine whether the underlying asset might reverse its price trend soon, has flashed a major sell signal on the 3-day chart.
The analyst added that this red sign comes as August begins, which has historically been associated with $BTC pullbacks.
“History doesn’t have to repeat, but it’s a setup worth watching,” he added.
One for the Bulls
Let’s not begin the month only with negativity and review the opposite side of the coin. Michaël van de Poppe noted earlier that $BTC could be primed for a major rebound due to its historical connection with the Nasdaq and South Korea’s KOSPI. Both major indices skyrocketed at the end of the business week, with KOSPI notching a massive 18% surge.
“The last time this happened, Bitcoin rallied to $83,000,” said van de Poppe. His expectation contrasts Ali Martinez’s warning for a weak start to August.
An enormous bounce on the Nasdaq and therefore a massive weekly candle, just as $KOSPI has bounced upwards.
I repeat, the last time this happened, #Bitcoin rallied to $83,000.
I would expect to see a strong start of August coming week for #Bitcoin as a response to the current… https://t.co/EJF8PcmOSI
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 31, 2026
