Bitcoin miners are facing growing financial strain as falling prices and shrinking revenue push several key industry indicators into what analyst Axel Adler Jr. has described as a “stress zone.”
But while the pressure is building, the data suggests that the market has not yet reached the collapse-level extremes seen in 2018 or 2022.
What the Metrics Are Saying
According to Adler, the Puell Multiple 30-day moving average, which compares the current daily revenue of $BTC miners to a 365-day average, fell 11% in ten days, moving from 0.83 at the end of May to 0.74 as of June 10.
The raw Puell Multiple is even lower, at 0.58. Values below 1.0, per the analyst, mean that current revenue is running below the annual norm, and the deeper that reading goes, the harder things become for mining operators.
For context, the Puell 30DMA hit a peak of 1.33 in July 2025 when $BTC was trading above $120,000. The current 0.74 puts miners roughly where they were in mid-2024, right around the halving period when the flagship cryptocurrency was changing hands between $55,000 and $68,000.
At the 2022 cycle low, Adler says the same indicator fell to 0.45, while in December 2018 it reached 0.33. So judging by those, 0.74 is not exactly a crisis number.
But the issue, as the market observer pointed out, is that the 30DMA has been dropping for two straight weeks, and at that pace it could very well reach 0.50 by late June, a level that led to mass equipment shutdowns in 2022.
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The second metric is the Price-to-Miner-Revenue Multiple, which measures how far above the annual revenue per $BTC of miners the cryptocurrency’s price is trading.
According to Adler, a falling reading means the speculative premium over miner production costs is shrinking. The ratio is currently at 80, having tumbled from a high of 160 that it registered in 2025.
However, the analyst says that’s a “normalization zone,” and it has not yet hit undervaluation territory. For comparison, the 2022 bottom saw it hit 33, while it compressed as far as 15 in February 2019.
Lastly, Adler touched on the Miner Capitulation metric, which tracks the percentage change in Bitcoin’s price since the most recent Difficulty Bottom. Per his report, that drawdown was at -21% as of June 9, while it had been at -8 on June 1 and near zero toward the end of May.
Historically, deeper miner distress emerged when contractions pushed beyond -30%, with the worst reading on record coming in 2022 when it hit -39 and contributed to the forced selling and large-scale ASIC shutdowns seen in that year.
How Far From a True Bottom
Despite the pressure, Adler confirmed that miners have not yet fully capitulated, and for that to happen, the Puell Multiple would likely need to fall below 0.50, the Price-to-Miner-Revenue Multiple would need to compress toward the 30-40 range, and the dip from the Difficulty Bottom would need to be more than -30%.
Right now, all three metrics are running at about half the severity of those historical extremes. But the analyst said that they could deteriorate some more if $BTC were to fall below $55,000 without a new downward difficulty adjustment.
The asset was trading a couple of hundred bucks below $63,000 at the time of writing, having bounced back from a brief drop toward $59,000 last Friday, which was its worst showing in nearly two years.
