In this article we will see some predictions about the price of Bitcoin by the end of the year: comparing it to the performance in previous market cycles, we can hypothesize a price above $100,000 by December.
Let’s see all the details below.
Bitcoin price predictions in USD: comparing with other bull cycles
At this historical moment, making predictions about the future price of Bitcoin is not easy at all, especially after the currency has broken a decade-long spell that was affecting its price action and preventing it from reaching new all-time highs before the date of the halving.
Indeed, this time around, Bitcoin surpassed the $69,000 threshold in the first days of March, more than a month ahead of the fateful event of halving miner rewards, disrupting all analyses based on pre and post-halving prices.
Although many believe that the timing of bull/bear cycles has been changed by the advent of Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street, we remain faithful to what history tells us: we take as a reference assumption the fact that Bitcoin registers X percentage gains above each previous high (from high to high) and see how the data of the last 3 market cycles look like.
For example, from the peak of the 2013 bull market, where the digital currency had reached a peak of 1,160 USD, prices increased by 1586% in the following years reaching the peak of the 2017 bull run at 19,650 USD.
If this year Bitcoin were to follow the same performance, starting from the level of 69,000 USD, we could hypothesize a final price of 1,163,300 USD.
Obviously this represents the most optimistic forecast.
Weekly chart of Bitcoin price (BTC/USD), Bitstamp market
Comparing instead the top of 2017 with that of 2021, we see how Bitcoin has grown by 251%, reaching the end of the upward trend of the next cycle at 69,000 USD.
If we were to project this result to today, we would see a maximum price of 242,190 USD at the end of the bull run.
This forecast is also slightly optimistic, but it is certainly more plausible and achievable compared to the previous one.
Weekly chart of Bitcoin price (BTC/USD), Bitstamp market
As the years go by, Bitcoin is becoming bigger and bigger both in terms of market capitalization and in terms of adoption in mainstream culture.
It is clear, therefore, that the more mature the asset becomes, the smaller the price extensions it will be able to make under the same conditions.
A much more conservative view of the two comparisons just mentioned, which considers the reduction of volatility of the cryptocurrency, would still see Bitcoin reach at least $100,000 as the historical maximum of this cycle.
If, then, the ETF effect will spread, positively influencing the currency’s reputation and leading to a strong and continuous increase in demand, we could even predict prices above $200,000 or who knows, maybe close to half a million dollars per unit.
According to the modest opinion of the author of this article, the maximum price that will be reached will probably be between 100,000 and 200,000 USD, with a tendency towards the lower half of the range.
Short-term analysis on Bitcoin: likely ranging from 68,000 USD to 65,000 USD over the weekend
Now, let’s narrow our horizons a bit and see what Bitcoin is up to in the short term.
From the rejection of $73,800 on March 14th, the cryptocurrency then experienced a brief phase of price decline before recovering two days ago with a super daily candle of +9.65%.
Now with the quotes approaching the weekend, the chances of a strong downward or upward movement decrease, and instead the possibilities of a ranging situation in the coming days between the level of 65,000 and 68,000 USD increase.
If bears were to break through the $65,000 wall, the lower extreme would drop to $60,000, however opening the way to bearish scenarios.
The last possible stop in case of a flash crash is at 59,500 USD, which represents the EMA 50 daily, with hypothetical spikes below the limit.
Pay attention also to the trend of the RSI as it seems to be predicting the end of a bullish movement and the exhaustion of the trend’s strength.
On the other hand, high volumes support the most optimistic theses, which see Bitcoin breaking the $70,000 wall at the beginning of next week, and then attempting a prolonged stretch above local highs.
The situation at the moment is extremely delicate: be careful not to lean too much with your predictions.
Daily chart of Bitcoin price (BTC/USD), Bitstamp market
