Ethereum ($ETH) is trading at $2,135, 9% below its March peak, as a post-rally distribution phase plays out on the daily chart.
Two on-chain signals point in opposite directions — whale wallets were selling into the peak, but a sharp exchange supply withdrawal now suggests buyers are stepping in at current levels.
Ethereum Whale Wallets Distributed Into the March Rally Peak
Santiment data tracking wallets holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 $ETH shows large holders increased their balances steadily through mid-March as the price climbed toward $2,370. That buying helped power the 21.44% recovery rally from the March 9 low near $1,950.
The turning point came around March 21. As the price peaked, whale wallet balances dropped sharply alongside Ethereum’s price, declining from approximately $2,332 to $2,053 in two days.
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Ethereum Whale Holdings. Source: Santiment
The simultaneous fall in both whale balance and price confirms these large holders were distributing — not buying — into the rally’s upper range.
This distribution is the direct cause of the 13% correction annotated on the price chart. The selling was not a panic liquidation; it was a deliberate exit by large wallets at elevated prices.
Buying $ETH Is Still The Dominant Sentiment
Despite the whale-driven selloff, exchange supply data reveals a powerful counter-move. Between March 21 and 22, approximately 870,000 $ETH was withdrawn from all exchanges — dropping total exchange supply from roughly 8.12 million to 7.29 million $ETH.
This represents approximately $1.8 billion in $ETH moved off exchanges. Coins leaving exchanges signal buying intent — holders withdrawing to self-custody are not planning to sell immediately.
Ethereum Exchange Balance. Source: Santiment
This divergence is the crux of the near-term case. Whale wallets sold; a separate cohort of buyers simultaneously pulled $1.43 billion off exchanges. The net effect on price depends on which force dominates over the coming days.
$ETH Price Areas To Watch
Ethereum price is just above the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement at $2,027. This level has provided support on two prior tests and is the last meaningful floor before $1,928. A daily close above $2,148 would provide $ETH with much-needed support
$ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
Adding weight to the case for a floor, Net Realized Profit/Loss data from Glassnode shows the single largest positive reading of the entire period on March 23, approximately +$380 million. After six weeks of predominantly red bars, this spike means buyers are now realizing profits.
Ethereum Net Realized Profit/Loss. Source: Glassnode
To reverse the correction, $ETH needs a daily close above $2,148. This would enable $ETH to pursue recovery of the recent 13% correction towards $2,350. The $1.43 billion exchange withdrawal provides the raw buying material for that move. Whether it arrives this week depends on whether the $2,027 Fibonacci floor holds on any further test.
On the other hand, if this buying were to turn into selling soon, the Ethereum price could end up losing the support of $2,027. This would push the altcoin king towards the next major support of $1,928, losing which will invalidate the bullish thesis.
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